Overview

Alpha One Hypothesis — Newsletter 002
As the market rotates into AI and defence, the sports world's biggest brands have been left behind. Nike and Adidas are trading near decade lows — right before the largest football tournament on the planet kicks off on home soil.
The Setup

As the world moves towards AI and defence stocks, some of the biggest players in the sports world have become forgotten. But this opportunity is something we can capitalise on.

Sports stocks such as Adidas (ADS.DE) and Nike (NKE) have reached some of their lowest points since 2016. With the World Cup coming around in June, it will boost the sales of jerseys, shoes, balls and other fitness products around the world.

With the tournament being held in the US, it may generate more hype and commercial momentum compared to previous editions. Although speculative, it is enticing to buy the two strongest sports merchandise players at some of their lowest prices right before the biggest sporting event in the last four years — with the possible exception of the Olympics.

NKE
Nike, Inc.  ·  NYSE  ·  Consumer Discretionary
Price$44.00
EPS (TTM)$2.16
P/E Ratio~20×
RatingBUY
ADS.DE
Adidas AG  ·  XETRA  ·  Consumer Discretionary
Price$180.00
EPS (TTM)$8.70
P/E Ratio~20×
RatingBUY

Yearly EPS

Earnings Per Share — Nike (USD) vs Adidas (EUR) · 2015–2025
Nike (NKE) — USD
Adidas (ADS.DE) — EUR
Note: Nike EPS is reported in USD; Adidas EPS in EUR. Values are not directly comparable due to currency differences but reflect the earnings trajectory of each company independently. Adidas FY2023 shows a loss of €0.23 driven by the one-time Yeezy inventory write-down.

Quarterly EPS — World Cup Windows

Each data point is the reported EPS on its earnings release date. Green bands mark past World Cup windows; the red band marks the upcoming 2026 tournament. Compare the quarters immediately flanking each window to read the commercial impact.

Nike (NKE) — Quarterly Reported EPS (USD)
Past WC window
WC 2026 (upcoming)
Adidas (ADS.DE) — Quarterly Reported EPS (EUR)
Past WC window
WC 2026 (upcoming)

Nike (NKE)

Coming soon — deep dive on NKE

Adidas (ADS.DE)

Coming soon — deep dive on ADS.DE

Our Thesis

Coming soon — investment thesis

Trade Setup

Coming soon — entry, target & stop loss

Frequently Asked Questions

Both stocks have suffered from a broader rotation away from consumer discretionary and into technology and defence. Nike in particular has faced headwinds from inventory oversupply, slowing China growth, and a CEO transition. Adidas has largely recovered from the fallout of ending the Yeezy partnership but still trades well below its 2021 highs. The market has priced in a lot of bad news — the World Cup catalyst is not yet in the price.
Coming soon.
Coming soon.
DISCLAIMER — NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. This page is produced by Alpha One for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All data is sourced from public filings and third-party sources as of May 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.